Hello and welcome to Episode 3 of The Moving Curve. I’m Rukmini. Every night, I try to distill the developments of the day to think aloud about one question around the novel coronavirus in India.
Poor people report more illness but less hospitalisation: India Human Development Survey II data, article forthcoming in Mint
Jishnu Das et al study on the quality of primary care: https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2011.1356
The Bhilwara case: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-51997488
Testing rates around the world: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing
Testing rates in Indian states: https://www.indiaspend.com/states-that-are-testing-more-are-detecting-more-cases-data-show/
What we know about certifying deaths: https://www.livemint.com/news/india/if-coronavirus-spreads-in-india-will-we-know-11583211114946.html
So here’s my answer on India’s coronavirus numbers. I don’t believe that the government is lying. But not everyone goes to a doctor when they’re sick, not all doctors diagnose disease and death correctly, and not everyone who could have the novel coronavirus is being tested. It’s not a lie, but there’s a pretty big hole in the truth.
That’s all from me today. Thanks to Anand Krishnamoorthy for editing this episode. Tomorrow — a new question.