Hello and welcome to The Moving Curve. I’m Rukmini, a Chennai-based data journalist. Every night on this mini-cast, I consider one question around the novel coronavirus epidemic in India. Tonight I’m asking this question — we have fewer cases now than models had projected. Does this prove that the lockdown worked?
The March 22 University of Michigan predictive model: https://medium.com/@covind_19/predictions-and-role-of-interventions-for-covid-19-outbreak-in-india-52903e2544e6
A lockdown resulting in a gentler rise in cases than the initial rate of growth suggested doesn’t prove its success then — it’s just doing what a lockdown is specifically designed to do. It’s entirely possible that the lockdown *will* prove to have been a success. But correctly defining success will be a good starting point. So what would “prove” that a lockdown has been successful? That’s in tomorrow’s episode.
Thank you for listening. This episode was edited by Anand Krishnamoorthi. Tomorrow — a new question.