The Moving Curve: Episode 42

Hello and welcome to The Moving Curve. I’m Rukmini, a Chennai-based data journalist. Every night on this mini-cast, I consider one question around the novel coronavirus epidemic in India. Tonight I’m asking this question — we have fewer cases now than models had projected. Does this prove that the lockdown worked?

The chart shared by Lav Agarwal on April 11
The chart shared by VK Paul on April 24

The March 22 University of Michigan predictive model: https://medium.com/@covind_19/predictions-and-role-of-interventions-for-covid-19-outbreak-in-india-52903e2544e6

A lockdown resulting in a gentler rise in cases than the initial rate of growth suggested doesn’t prove its success then — it’s just doing what a lockdown is specifically designed to do. It’s entirely possible that the lockdown *will* prove to have been a success. But correctly defining success will be a good starting point. So what would “prove” that a lockdown has been successful? That’s in tomorrow’s episode.

Thank you for listening. This episode was edited by Anand Krishnamoorthi. Tomorrow — a new question.

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I am a data journalist based in Chennai, India.

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